By Lori Lee
NDG Contributing Writer
Following the U.S. military’s swift and successful removal of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan people enter a new and uncertain future. The South American country, the most urbanized country in Latin America, is being used as an instrumental piece in what seems to be emerging as a much larger geopolitical move by the U.S., said New York University historian Alejandro Velasco at an American Community Media briefing last week.
Having grown up in Venezuela and with family and friends still living there, Velasco is acutely aware of the painful, jarring anxiety associated with this new phase of instability, following more than a decade of economic loss, hyperinflation, political turmoil, and mass migration.
As the dust has settled over the past few days, and as acting president Delcy Rodriguez and other key players attempt to negotiate with U.S. officials, Venezuelans are most concerned with their economy, said Velasco. The political tension adds to the sense of chaos, though the regime itself is cohesive, he said, Rodriguez and leaders still in place after the ouster still holding the country together through paramilitary and police security forces.
So far, Trump has not spoken of giving leadership to Maria Corina Machado. He claims Machado doesn’t have the needed respect despite that she won the opposition’s 2023 primary and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump has instead chosen to support Delcy Rodriguez, who he expects will be more cooperative compared to the ousted Maduro when it comes to allowing U.S. exploitation of Venezuelan oil and ceasing the sale of its oil to U. S. adversaries, Politico reported. This, following the President’s claims that Maduro was removed due to his involvement in the drug trade, thus bringing into question the true motivation behind the recent targeting of alleged Venezuelan drug boats.
The Trump Administration has offered Rodriguez relief from U.S. sanctions and access to her financial assets, while threatening that if she fails to cooperate, the country will face further military action, they reported.
“It’s not surprising that Donald Trump doesn’t care about democracy,” said Velasco. “What is surprising is the explicitness and the kind of brazenness with which this is being articulated.”
As a historian, he is trained to read the subtext, he said. “I’m trained to read between the lines. I’m trained to read past the blacked-out parts of the classified documents, to hear the quiet part. It is jarring to me as an historian, methodologically, to hear the quiet part stated so loudly.”
As opposed to principles of liberty, freedom, democracy, he added, the U.S. has been explicitly fixed on oil, in a very cold, calculated, non principled way.
The U.S. has been threatening the use of force for many months now, leading up to the extraction of Maduro, added Mariano de Alba, research and writer and Associate Felliw for the Latin American Programme. Its threats have made the U.S. operation illegal under the U.N. Charter, which prohibits the threat of force, while providing for force with authorization.
To justify U.S. actions, the country has failed to recognize Maduro’s presidency, given his indictment as head of a drug trafficking organization, this while co-opting members of the military and government to turn a blind eye in exchange for money, said de Alba.
That Maduro lost the election is irrelevant in international law, given his de facto governance of the country. This, and Russia and China’s veto power make authorization very unlikely, he explained.
Since the attack and seizure of Maduro was authorized by President Trump, it is highly unlikely the U.S. or Trump will face any sort of legal consequences given the armed assault on Venezuelan territory killed as many as 100 people. This, considering the position the U.S. Supreme Court on the immunity of sitting presidents, Vigil said.
Though the Trump Administration, as a unifying mechanism, claims to value democracy and human rights, it is taking a strategy of reclaiming preeminence in the Western Hemisphere through coercion and threats, he said.
“We are now moving into a scenario where the U.S. will take advantage of the success of the operation against Maduro to try to coerce the Latin American region and perhaps other world countries, said de Alba.
This idea of coercion and threats will likely not work, he added, and we will soon start to see movements in Europe and other areas to decrease the risks of the U.S. foreign policy agenda,” said de Alba.
Though there may be support for the ouster of Maduro, it has not resulted in the fall of his government, added international affairs expert Roxanna Vigil and former senior sanctions policy advisor at the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Further, the word “democracy” hasn’t even come up in the discussions surrounding Venezuela, said Vigil.
By leaving the Maduro regime in place, the Trump Administration minimizes the interests of the Venezuelan people, while expanding the possibilities for the exploitation of Venezuelan oil. This, as the country is extremely dependent on oil revenues for its economy, said Vigil.
Yet, Venezuela is producing only about 900,000 barrels of oil per day, or less than 1% of global supply. This, added to declines in oil demand and prices under Biden’s environmentally focused Administration, as MSNOW reported, leaves the oil industry with little motivation to go in and invest in Venezuela, as Trump has requested, she said.
And though it may be a more viable alternative than riskier countries like Iraq in some ways, Venezuelan oil requires significant inputs to treat and refine the heavier, sour oil, noted Vigil.
Although oil demand is expected to increase over the long haul in a timeframe necessary to produce this type of oil, non-OPEC oil from the Americas, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana will be adding substantial quantities to the market in coming years, making it less likely that the oil will be needed.
Even if rebuilding the Venezualen oil sector does prove viable, we have little information about how the Trump Administration plans to use the proceeds, officials saying funds will not go to the Treasury Department with oversight; this raising significant questions about whether any funds would be put toward running the Venezuelan government.
Trump has said the money will benefit Venezuelans, though the people are not currently being represented and have no mechanism for a representative of them to inform how the funds are used in the future.
