By Lori Lee
NDG Contributing Writer
The world is watching as this year’s El Niño exceeds records, with data showing a dangerous intensification of weather patterns this fall and winter. Dr. Daniel Swain, Research Partner, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF) and one of the leading experts on weather and climate addressed the dynamics of El Niño at an August American Community Media briefing in August. He emphasized that human-driven climate change is supercharging a natural phenomenon into a historic threat.
This Fall, the world’s oceans will plunge into turmoil as astronomical tides and surging sea levels trigger severe coastal flooding along the U.S. East and West Coasts. As waters rise along the shorelines, the southeastern states will likely also experience a very wet winter.
Simultaneously, the shifting climate patterns will choke off rainfall thousands of miles away, plunging Hawaii, Indonesia, and the Amazon Rainforest into severe drought.
Dr. Swain defined El Niño as a natural climate process characterized by a temporary warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The warming ocean waters weaken the normal east to west wind patterns over the Pacific, causing warm water from the western Pacific to “slosh” eastward, stirring up global atmospheric circulation and storm tracks.
By acting as a temporary “temperature release valve” that moves heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, El Niño, combined with human-caused climate change, is expected to drive global temperatures to new record highs over the next 6 to 12 months. The cycle is expected to offer a preview of the new normal for the general climate by 2030, said Sloan.
El Niño is not a new phenomenon. Records from the World Resources Institute track the pattern back to the lethal 1877–1878 cycle, which sparked widespread famine and weather chaos. The trend has continued, with the 1997–1998 event, inflicting global economic damage and massive coral bleaching. This was followed by unprecedented surface heat in 2014–2016, with intense droughts and marine heatwaves.
The upcoming season will prove far more destructive because the higher ocean levels will be stacked on top of existing rises in sea level due to global warming.
As the climate shifts, communities are facing an immediate financial vulnerability: a massive gap in insurance coverage. In many of the highest-risk coastal and flood-prone areas, less than 2 percent of residents hold flood insurance, leaving millions exposed.
While mitigating the damage through insurance coverage is important, addressing the broader climate crisis remains the overarching goal. This will mean reducing our use of fossil fuels, developing technology to clean up the environment, and reengineering infrastructure to work with nature.
