Thursday, March 28, 2024

2022 Vote: Don’t just register, turn out and vote

By Allen R. Gray
NDG Contributing Writer

Voting in any election is a process that isn’t complete until the ballot is cast by whatever means is legally permissible. While Democrats are doing great when it comes to registering voters, the actual votes cast at the ballot box typically do not align with the number of voters who registered. With this year’s midterms, a high voter turnout might be the determining factor that will decide which party will prevail.

Since the 1960s, total voter turnout for presidential elections has averaged about 40 percent of the population of active voters. Recent elections, though, have garnered a higher percentage of voter turnout. Starting the with 2008 presidential election, voter turnout increased to around 57% of the Voting-Age Population (VAP).

In the most recent Biden/Trump presidential election in 2020, 62% of Americans who qualified as VAP turned out to vote. According to the Current Population Survey (2020), close to 10 million more women than men turned out to vote.

Graphic via U.S Air Force

When analyzing voter turnout by race, there are distinct differences in the percentage that registered to vote and those who actually showed up at the polls. (See chart)

To the delight of Democrats, a drastic increase in the number of registered voters could threaten the stranglehold Republicans have had on Texas for the past few decades. Texas has recorded a record nearly 17 million registered voters heading into the midterm elections. That represents 1.9 million new potential voters. That makes for a gubernatorial race that Republicans might find to be tenuous at best.

One survey summarized the Texas governor’s race by saying that as of October 15, Abbott had a 4-point lead over brash challenger Beto O’Rourke. That summation was based on those who had only registered to vote, though. Abbott’s lead was elevated to 8 points when those who say they will definitely vote were queried.

Democratic success is directly linked to those electorates that showed up at the polls and cast a ballot. (See chart)

Voter turnout is much more than a matter of race. The way racial groups chose to cast their ballot also affects the probability of an electorate not just being registered but actually completing the voting process.

With the 2020 presidential election, for instance, only 33% of those voters who voted in person were Democrats, compared to 65% of in-person voters being Republican. Republicans also led in the category of early in-person, voting 52% compared to Democrats 47%.

Albeit, Democrats led by a wide margin when it came to mail-in or absentee voting. In that category, 65% of those voters who chose not to show up in person were Democrats; and Republicans accounted for 33% of mail-in and absentee voting. (Pew Research Center)
The age of potential voters also weighs heavily in the elections. People aged 65 and older have a higher probability of showing up at the polls. Voter turnout becomes tenuous as the age of the voter decreases. The median age of voters during a presidential election is between 39 and 45 years, and the median age for voters in elections between presidential elections is between 43 and 47 years. Although voter turnout tends to peak at the age of 50. The decline in voter turnout is more evident with younger voters.

Ever since 18-years-olds gained the right to vote in 1972, their tendency to actually vote has been wanting. VAPs who are between 18 and 24 years are least likely to vote in any form.

Democrats seem to recognize the potential voters’ pool that is represented by the youth and are appealing to the desires of that age group via targeted ads and social media campaigns.

In the 2016 presidential race, 58% of voters aged 18-29 voted for the Democratic candidate compared to 28% voting for the Republican candidate. In 2018, 72% of that age group voted Democrat versus 23% Republican. Then in 2020, 59% of electorates aged 18-29 voted Democrat compared to 35% Republican.

If Democrats can organize and rally newly indoctrinated voters to participate in the voting process and target campaign ads to that younger voter, the Republican stranglehold in Texas could be loosened.

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