By Lori Lee
NDG Contributing Writer
Since 1994, when NAFTA eliminated tariffs between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, relations between Mexico and the U.S. have remained relatively stable, reports the Council on Foreign Relations. This, despite constant challenges involving immigration and drug trafficking.
The path of appeasement taken by the last three Mexican presidents have helped maintain this stability, as international political expert and author David R. Ayon explained in an April American Community Media briefing.
Considering hostilities and recent threats of tariffs directed at Mexico, relations between the two countries continue to be surprisingly stable.
In her cool-headed manner, Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, achieved exceptions to Trump’s March tariff orders, Sheinbaum reminding Trump of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) signed during his first administration. Sheinbaum evenly pointed to conflicts between the agreement and the imposition of tariffs, the Associated Press reported.
Though Trump’s threats will have few real impacts on trade, the threat of tariffs have already affected the value of the peso and foreign investment flows into Mexico, explained Ayon.
Yet, like the presidents before her, Sheinbaum has taken a stance of appeasement with the U.S., diverting more water across its border, enabling border militarization, and increasing control over migration, said Ayon.This, while trying to convey to the Trump Administration that the U.S. has a stake in maintaining positive relations with the country.
A certain amount of luck has entered into this good relationship, explained Ayon. During the COVID pandemic, as disruptions of global supply chains encouraged the U.S. to trade closer to home, Mexico gained an advantage, becoming the number one trading partner for the U.S. in 2023.
This position of prominence in trade makes this stable relationship a great achievement for Mexico, which Ayon points out is very valuable to both countries. Mexico is benefiting from being adjacent to the U.S., compared to Canada, which has experienced tense relations with the U.S. since Trump took office.
According to political strategist and consultant, Luis Alvarado, Mexico’s new trade dominance has allowed it to grow both economically and socially, while reducing U.S. dependence on China. Mexico is now enjoying a stronger economy, improved quality of life, and dramatic social changes, as Mexican citizens increasingly remain in their homes, despite historical migration trends. We’re now seeing a growing proportion of migrants coming from South and Central America, explained Alvarado.
To improve on its position in 2024, Mexico committed to a major investment and expansion of its Pacific port in Manzanillo, reassuring foreign investors of its commitment to an internationalized economic model. Yet, the rejection of container ships and recent delays have hurt trade, just as Mexico expands its capacity through the port.
Despite Trump’s attacks on Mexico due to fentanyl and prominent headlines about cartels in the north, the country has made social and economic progress as a whole, he explained.
Sheinbaum has also been successful in anticipating Trump’s actions and particularly skilled in understanding his manipulation of media resources. With her experience as the former mayor of Mexico City, Sheinbaum learned negotiating skills and an ability to skillfully avoid reactionary comments which could provoke a response from President Trump, said Alvarado.
Mexico has continued to benefit from good relations with the U.S. just as much of the world is struggling under the chaos and uncertainty of the Trump Administration, he said.
Since unpredictable markets make investment decisions difficult, businesses tend to reduce their investments during periods of uncertainty, MSNBC reported. As U.S. alliances shift, worldwide instability surrounding the Trump presidency is a key concern for the global economy, especially considering future U.S. elections remain somewhat unpredictable, said Alvarado.
Though Sheinbaum represents the left and Trump the right, both presidents are attempting dramatic government reforms. By seeking a similar language and partnership with the White House, Sheinbaum has been able to mitigate the feverish uncertainty and backlash that much of the world is trying to maneuver, he said.
As both governments seek to improve their security, a key issue for each country, they are working together to curtail the drug cartels, which have become massive terrorist organizations, Rubin explains.These organizations are dangerous to Americans, dangerous to Mexicans, and dangerous to everyone, warned Rubin.
Mexican citizens welcome the added pressure coming from the U.S. to improve its security. Working with Texas officials in the crucial border state that represents a third of the trade between the two countries,
Texas is of critical geopolitical importance, said Rubin.
Working together is important to both countries. Though a more negative tone toward Mexico might better suit the MAGA political narrative, Trump manages to carry on a multiplicity of dialogues while appeasing different segments of his base, he explained, just as his administration sits down to do business with Mexico.
Professor Alberto Diaz Calleros of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies adds, the idea that Sheinbaum has been working under the shadow of former president Andres Manuel misses the point. Sheinbaum is a Nobel Prize winning scientist trained in cutting edge research, and she comes to the presidency in her own right. And with approval ratings nearing 80%, she may be the most popular president in the world, said Calleros.
Trump is using tariff policy with strategic goals that are less to do with trade than with geopolitics, he added. Citing economist Albert Hirschman, he described how tariffs were historically used to create spheres of influence, helping to bridge gaps and allowing government leaders to communicate and bargain with each other.
Yet, whether the current global environment will support President Trump’s goal of increased U.S. manufacturing remains questionable. As Larry Rubin, president and chairman of the Board of the American Society of Mexico, makes clear, if all Mexican manufacturing were to move to the U.S. today, there would not be enough workers to staff the facilities. A severe deficit of workers continues to grow, said Rubin.
Probably no other government or country plays as crucial a role in trade as Mexico, he added. The U.S. and Mexico need each other. They complement each other well. The U.S. needs Mexican products as much as Mexico needs trade, said Rubin.
Nevertheless, the disruption Trump brings to international economic relations poses a looming threat of recession, added Rubin, and as the number one U.S. trading partner, Mexico would suffer greatly along with the U.S. if a recession occurs. We’re suffering the growing pains that come with interconnected world economies, Rubin said.
Yet, Mexico pushed through during a pandemic that presented unprecedented economic challenges. Now, it is determinedly holding on to its alliances as it maneuvers through yet another unpredictable economic domain.
