By Lori Lee
NDG Contributing Writer
As the nation’s diversity continues to grow, ethnic voting patterns will increasingly have a hand in determining our elections, and voters who are new to voting will wield greater influence.
Eligible Latino voters have increased by 4.7 million since 2018, reports the Brookings Institute. This wide increase is due in large part to a growing segment of young Latinos who are coming of age to vote. With a third of Latino voters young or new to voting and their median age much younger than the general electorate, young Latinos will be an essential demographic in 2024, explained Assistant Professor at Loyola Miramar University Claudia Sandoval.
Since young male voters tended to swing Republican from 2016 to 2020, some Democrats are concerned the Latino vote may follow with more movement toward the Republican party.
Yet these numbers do not necessarily represent a mass exodus, Sandoval clarifies. As the Pew Research Center reports, Latino registered voters leaned Democrat nearly two to one, in a 2022 survey, with little shift in party identification over the past few years.
Said Sandoval, Latinos voted Republican in much higher numbers in the early 80s for Reagan, a champion of immigration reform. In 2000, Republicans captured a sizable 35% of the Latino vote, finally peaking in 2004, as 44% of Latino voters leaned right aligning with George W. Bush’s bipartisan stance on immigration.
While Trump is not seen as a progressive on immigration reform, some Latinos relate to him as an independent, she explained. Latino voters do not focus solely on immigration, said Sandoval. Highly concerned with the economy, healthcare, and education, they also care about violent crime and gun policy.
Among attitudes that may influence their vote, Sandoval notes that some Latino males, who are good at running businesses, believe they’d do better under a President from the business world. What is more, a third of Latino males believe the Democratic Party does not care about them.
Similar to Sandoval, Assistant Professor at Georgetown Jami Scott does not see existing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party as leading to mass exodus. Despite low favorability for Biden, especially among typically left-leaning young voters, Black voters are more tolerant looking forward, said Scott, many having left their 2016 stay-at-home mentality for more of a hold-your-nose-and-vote strategy toward the upcoming election.
Their choice to withhold the 2016 vote, born out of a dissatisfaction for desired policy changes, according to Scott, was also triggered by Russian influence in social media, according to The Guardian, which drove Black voters to boycott the election or vote third party.
While pointing to record low unemployment among Blacks and increasing opportunities for Black businesses and Black judges, Scott notes that the divided political and judicial spectrum has made some Biden Administration failures inevitable, such as the shortcomings in student loan forgiveness, which she attributes to a conservative Supreme Court.
When it comes to the Asian American and Pacific Island (AAPI) vote, polls have not always accurately reflected their preferences, explains Professor of Public Policy and Political Science, UC Riverside Karthick Ramakrishman. As founder of AAPI Data, Ramakrishman has worked toward improving the accuracy of polling data, assisted by support in native languages. The group recently revealed data that they believe is a more accurate representation of AAPI views and leanings.
Asian Americans have consistently identified with the Democratic Party at about a 2 to 1 ratio, explained Ramakrishman. Though some Vietnamese and Chinese Americans moved toward the Republican party in 2016, these groups moved away from the party while under Trump as President, with just over a quarter of Asian Americans now connected to the Republican party, said Ramakrishman.
The tendency of the Democratic party to hold the AAPI vote has remained stable over time, he explained, recently showing a strong tendency to favor Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, while disfavoring Donald Trump and Ron Disantis.
This tendency for AAPI voters to favor Democrats remains constant despite having Asian Americans candidates in the political spectrum, including Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are both Asian American candidates. It is rare for someone who identifies as a strong Democrat to have a favorable view of either of these candidates, said Ramakrishman.
Identification with a party shapes political opinion more so than ethnicity and even a candidate’s own stand on the issues, said Ramakrishman, and Indian and Japanese Americans tend to be among the strongest AAPI Democratic party supporters, with only about a quarter to a third being persuadable when party identification is weak, Ramakrishman said. Those who identify strongly with a party are more likely to be moved by partisan shifts than even their own opinions, he said.
As Sandoval explained, none of the nuances in voter preferences will matter unless the ethnic groups show up in large numbers at the polls. Research tells us that grass roots efforts at canvassing and mobilization will be key, she said, warning that all too often, the parties fall short on investing in the Latino vote, while failing to fund the subgroups who would get out the vote.
Jessica Siles, Deputy Press Secretary at Voters of Tomorrow, tends to agree that mobilization is crucial. The Gen Z-led organization that Siles represents engages young Americans in politics. The organization works to harness the power of the Gen Z vote in order to affect legislation. Making calls and knocking on doors, the organization contacted millions of young people during the 2022 election to help teach them the importance of political action.
Though Gen Z is more ethnically diverse than any other generation, they have displayed both unity and action over the past decade, said Siles. Shared concerns about gun violence and a common experience of growing up with climate change have united youth, who continue to march in the streets for change. Voting democrat by a 28 point margin, according to the Tufts Center for Information and Research on Civic Engagement, it’s not that young people are so loyal to the party, said Siles. It’s that they really care about a few core issues and vote on their behalf.
With the highest youth turnout in about 30 years, Gen Z made up the entire 18 to 24 age block in 2022, said Siles. Their number one issue–the economy, as workers and taxpayers who are extremely concerned about being able to find a good job and pay for a house, she said. Though fairly united in their tendencies to lean left, disparities remain in this group in terms of race and gender, said Siles.
But it’s issues like climate action, gun violence and abortion that bring them to the polls. Though there’s been some confusing polling out there, said Siles, when it comes to top issues like climate change and abortion, only one party is somewhat acceptable, and Siles said she believes young voters will continue to see that.
In terms of barriers to getting out the vote, Ramakrishman cites misinformation affecting AAPI voters, while Siles points to a lack of information affecting youth. With numerous reports of voters never being contacted by candidates, compared to other generations, Siles said young people get their information from a lot of different places. Candidates should meet voters where they are online, said Siles, but they should also show up on college campuses and put in real effort to engage youth.
Transportation and voter I.D. issues create other barriers, which break down to be more of an issue for Black voters, said Siles. Voters of Tomorrow has physically mobilized, supporting ride share programs, and through its voter champion pledge, pushes people to go out of their way to engage at colleges and on social media.
Whether Black voters will see 2024 as a moment when they need to step up for democracy remains to be seen, said Scott. In 2024, excitement may be the issue, she said, but unfortunately, the parties are not reaching out to grass roots organizations to mobilize the vote.
Black voters have been dissatisfied before, and they still showed up, said Scott. With high unemployment among Blacks during the 90s, they still came out on Election Day. There are a lot of things that Black people have not been happy with for a very long time, but they have still been willing to show up to vote, she said.
